“McCain’s Iraq Flip-Flop?”

The New Republic 9 June 2008

It will be interesting to see how–and if–the candidates adapt their policies on Iraq to take into account Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s announcement this week that his government will work towards a negotiated timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq. McCain, for one–despite his attempts yesterday to do dismiss the relevance of Maliki’s statements to his Iraq policy–may have a big problem on his hands: As the folks over at Democracy Arsenal point out, the Arizona senator stated unequivocally in a 2004 Q&A session at the Council on Foreign Relations that the U.S. would be obligated to pull its troops from Iraq if requested to do so by a democratically elected Iraqi government:

[Peter] Peterson: Let me give you a hypothetical, senator. What would or should we do if, in the post-June 30th period, a so-called sovereign Iraqi government asks us to leave, even if we are unhappy about the security situation there? I understand it’s a hypothetical, but it’s at least possible.

McCAIN: Well, if that scenario evolves, then I think it’s obvious that we would have to leave because if it was an elected government of Iraq and we’ve been asked to leave other places in the world. If it were an extremist government, then I think we would have other challenges, but I don’t see how we could stay when our whole emphasis and policy has been based on turning the Iraqi government over to the Iraqi people.

In light of these earlier statements on his full commitment to Iraqi sovereignty on this issue, how can McCain now declare–without appearing to be a flip-flopper–that a U.S. pull-out will not occur “according to a set timetable,” even if the Iraqi government requests otherwise? And we thought Obama’s recent reconsiderations on Iraq wouldland him in flip-flop territory… 

“The Next Iraq?”

The New Republic 8 July 2008

While a recent deal in Lebanon between Hezbollah and the Western-backed government of Fouad Siniora may have averted the outbreak of all-out, Iraq-style sectarian conflict in the tiny Arab state, an article today on the Lebanese news-service Now Lebanon makes it clear how, in many ways, the current political conditions of Lebanon are disconcertingly similar to those of Iraq circa 2006: Its government is fractured and dysfunctional, simmering Sunni-Shia tensions threaten to boil over into widespread violence, and al-Qaeda-linked terrorist groups operate freely within the country’s lawless zones (such as the massive Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp in southern Lebanon). To make matters worse, the article points out, the newly-emboldened Hezbollah may be gearing up for a show-down with the country’s Sunni Jihadist groups in Ain al-Hilweh, in a move that would bring Lebanon even closer to its boiling point:

“Hezbollah is seriously thinking about [the Ain al-Hilweh] camp as an entity that jeopardizes its influence…. They call it the Sunni army,” [says Al Hayat columnist Hazem al-Amin]. Such speculation, in addition to various developments throughout the country … has perpetuated fears that future tensions involving Hezbollah could descend into a violent Sunni-Shia conflict far more devastating than the clashes in May.

 

“Iran’s Next President”

The New Republic 3 July 2008

Given the amount of media attention paid to Iran and its infamous president in recent weeks, we would do well to keep in mind that Ahmadinejad might not be in power for much longer: Around this time next year, the Islamic Republic will be holding presidential elections, and–according to some–the incumbent Ahmadinejad could suffer a loss at the polls. Who might step in to fill his shoes? According to an article this week from the Tehran Times, former president and reformist Mohammad Khatami is considering entering the race, and has started to garner domestic support for his campaign:

Mohammad Khatami who was president from 1997 to 2004 has sent mixed signals about his willingness to run for the next year’s presidential election. In a short interview with reporters he said “I have retired”. However, in a recent visit to Oslo, Norway, he told reporters, “Unfortunately, in the political sphere there is no retirement … When we can be active, we will be active.”